Jenkins About Hizbullah, Gülen, PKK, AKP and Turkey

Full interview quotes from the Istanbul-based analyst Gareth Jenkins. It includes some interesting quotes on the Gülen movement, AKP, the Kurdish Hizbullah, and the PKK. Sadly, I couldn't use all the information for the article. I interviewed him for my latest article about Fethullah Gülen's speeches about the Kurds, and PKK.

I don't think that there is any doubt that the Gulen Movement is supporting the KCK case. As with Ergenekon and Balyoz, it is difficult to prove the involvement of Gulenists in the judiciary but there is no doubt that the Gulenist media is supporting the case (e.g. publishing lies about Professor Ersanli to try to justify her detention). The subtext to the KCK investigation is the battle for hearts and minds in southeast Turkey. The Gulenists NGOs are now very active in the region and thus competing with NGOs sympathetic to the Kurdish nationalist movement (and also NGOs close to Hizbullah). The KCK is a real PKK organization, of course. But the KCK investigation is being used to imprison as many Kurdish nationalists as possible (some of whom at least actually hate the PKK). In the process, it is severely weakening organizations and structures (NGOs, BDP etc) which are rivals to the Gulen movement in southeast Turkey. The same method can be seen in the April 2009 raids in the Ergenekon case when police hit CYDD and Baba Beni Okula Gonder; which just happened to be the main secular organizations competing with the Gulenists to provide scholarships to students. Both Ergenekon and the KCK investigation are being used to try to eliminate the Gulen Movement's rivals.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Hizbullah, which is immensely powerful (though not yet violent again) in southeast Turkey. Apart from competing with the Gulenists for hearts and minds, Hizbullah is also trying to stake a claim to the legacy of Said Nursi, Gulen's spiritual
mentor. Hizbullah publications now portray him (accurately) as a being a Kurdish radical Islamist and thus (probably not quite so accurately) as a forerunner of their own movement. But the Gulenists are frightened of Hizbullah. So they may hesitate to go after them.

Having said that, the Gulenists may have bitten off more than they can chew with the KCK. The investigation is used by the PKK to whip up anti-Gulenist sentiment. There has been a lot recently in the PKK propaganda outlets about the Gulen Movement, particularly since a recent reshuffle in the judiciary/police saw several suspected Gulen sympathizers transferred to the southeast. Although
a lot of those arrested in the KCK investigation are not PKK, some are; and their arrest disrupts the PKK's ability to organize (NGO activity, recruitment etc). So, in addition to alienating the former leftists amongst the so-called "liberal intellectuals" -- who once supported the Gulen
Movement but have begun to split from it as leftists have been arrested and charged with membership of the KCK -- the KCK investigation may mean that the PKK starts directly targeting the Gulen Movement.

On the AKP and concessions on Kurdish language: it is possible. I think the AKP is willing to make some concessions. The problem is that they won't be enough. The Kurds' current demands (e.g. "democratic autonomy") are impossible for any Turkish government to grant under the current
circumstances. Both sides have to compromise. But they are so far apart that the few language concessions the AKP is prepared to make won't be enough to bring them together.